I ran track in high school. I ran the 800 meters. I didn’t want to run the 800 meters. The 800 meters is a gruelling race; an all out sprint twice around the track. I ran the 800 meters because I wasn’t quite fast enough to run the 100 meters.
Now there’s a cool race – the 100 meters. All you need is pure, natural physical speed.
There’s an old saying in track that goes like this: You can’t put in what God left out. In other words, when it comes to pure, physical speed, you’re either fast or you’re not. And if you’re not naturally fast, all the practice and training in the world isn’t going to make you fast.
The stopwatch doesn’t lie. You can’t manufacture pure speed. You’re born with it.
The lessons learned
I learned three important life lessons from my brief stint on the track team.
First, the numbers don’t lie. If the stopwatch says you’re not fast enough to run the 100 meters then you’d better start working on another race. You can’t ignore the numbers.
Second, the ability to adapt is the secret to success. By my senior year, I was the number one 800 meters runner for my high school. That would never have happened if I had stubbornly stuck to the 100 meters.
Third, there’s always a part of the race that is not in your control. You can’t put in what God left out. Once you have chosen the right race and have put in the countless hours of hard work to make yourself the best that you can be, the rest is up to God.
The contemporary American Christian church would do well to learn all three lessons.
The numbers don’t lie
In 2020, Gallup reported that 47% of U.S. adults were members of a church, synagogue, or mosque, marking the first time in Gallup’s eight-decade trend that membership fell below the majority. This represents a decline of 23 percentage points in 20 years.
According to that same Gallup poll, on any given weekend, about three in ten U.S. adults attend religious services, down from 42% two decades ago.
A Lifeway Research study found that more Americans say they never attend religious services (31%) than say they attend every week (21%).
The latest Religious Landscape Study by Pew Research Center, conducted over seven months in 2023-24, found that 62% of U.S. adults identify as Christians. This is a decline of 9 percentage points since 2014 and a 16-point drop since 2007.
At the same time, the proportion of Americans identifying as religiously unaffiliated has risen to 28%, surpassing both Catholics (23%) and Evangelical Protestants (24%).
The numbers don’t lie.
American Christianity is on an alarmingly steep decline.
Megachurches, once a bright growth spot on an otherwise dreary landscape of decline, are now experiencing a slight stagnation. After peaking around 2010 with approximately 1,600 megachurches, the number decreased to about 1,200 by 2020.
While some megachurches continue to expand, particularly through multisite strategies, the overall trend indicates a stabilization or decline in their growth.
The numbers don’t lie.
The megachurch luster has faded and Americans are looking for something else.
At the same time, seminaries which historically have produced professional leadership for churches are also struggling.
Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary, once the largest seminary in the world, saw enrollment decline from 3,094 students in 2000 to 2,278 in 2024.
Only 43% of seminaries accredited by the Association of Theological Schools (ATS) have experienced growth, while 57% reported declining enrollments, continuing a pattern observed since 2006.
Enrollment in Master of Divinity (M.Div.) programs, historically the flagship degree for pastoral training, has declined significantly more than other programs. In 2022, approximately 28,000 students were enrolled in M.Div. programs, a 4% decrease from 2021 and a 9% drop since 2018. Notably, M.Div. students now comprise about 35% of all ATS seminary enrollees, down from 43% a decade ago, indicating that even those seminaries with increasing enrollment are seeing fewer first-year seminarians choose the pastoral tract.
The numbers don’t lie.
These troubling declines are punctuated by a pall that has covered the work of professional clergy, stifling enthusiasm and draining critical human resources.
A 2023 Barna poll revealed that only 59% of pastors feel “very satisfied” with their vocation. This is down 13 percentage points from 2015. According to the same 2023 poll 42% of pastors “have seriously considered quitting full-time ministry.”
The numbers don’t lie.
With almost half of current pastors seriously considering leaving their posts and seminaries producing fewer and fewer pastors to replace them, the future of the American Church is in a certain amount of peril.
To add insult to injury, many are predicting a massive shift in wealth away from the church over the next twenty years, greatly reducing the needed financial resources for growth.
The numbers don’t lie.
The future looks grim. Something must change.
The solution in three theological shifts
There are three theological shifts that must take place in order to reverse these trends and provide the American Christian church with the resources it needs to thrive.
First, there must be a shift from an emphasis on “professional clergy” to “lay leadership.” This involves an erasure of the hard line that creates the false dichotomy between clergy and laity.
Second, there must be a shift in evangelism from a “heaven-centric” motivational model to a “life-transformation, call-to-action” model.
Third, there must be a shift from the glorification of the megachurch to a love for and multiplication of the smaller neighborhood church.
I will cover each of these theological shifts in the next three articles in this four-part series.
This insight was written by Dr. Ellis Orozco, the Public Theologian in Residence at Stark College & Seminary. Dr. Orozco served in ministry as a pastor for 30 years and is the founder and CEO of Karooso Ministries.
Visit Dr. Orozco’s Blog to read more.